L’épisode revient d’abord sur un tournant majeur dans la région, intervenu après la chute du régime de Bachar al-Assad. Cet événement a ouvert l’espace aérien syrien et créé un nouveau corridor stratégique, permettant à Israël d’élargir considérablement sa marge de manœuvre militaire. GeoChess montre, analyses à l’appui, comment la domination aérienne n’est plus seulement un avantage tactique, mais un levier central pour redessiner les équilibres de puissance au Moyen-Orient.

Le programme s’attarde ensuite longuement sur les frappes israéliennes à l’intérieur de l’Iran et pose une question essentielle : l’objectif réel était-il uniquement le programme nucléaire ? L’analyse géographique et militaire suggère que les frappes se sont concentrées sur des régions abritant des minorités ethniques, comme le Khuzestan, l’Azerbaïdjan iranien ou le Baloutchistan. Un choix qui laisse entrevoir une stratégie plus profonde, visant à fragiliser la cohésion interne de l’Iran et à accentuer les tensions et fractures internes.

GeoChess aborde également un point particulièrement sensible : le ciblage précis de cadres des Gardiens de la Révolution, tout en évitant la hiérarchie militaire classique (l’Artesh). Ce choix n’a rien d’anodin. Il traduit une volonté de provoquer un blocage stratégique au cœur du système décisionnel iranien, sans déclencher pour autant une guerre frontale et généralisée.

Enfin, l’émission met en relation ces opérations militaires avec la situation intérieure iranienne, marquée par des protestations sociales, une pression économique croissante et le poids des sanctions. Une interrogation majeure traverse alors l’analyse : assiste-t-on à une tentative de changement de régime ou à l’ouverture d’une nouvelle phase d’usure prolongée ? Avec l’entrée en scène des États-Unis, notamment à travers l’utilisation de bombardiers stratégiques visant des installations nucléaires profondes, GeoChess montre que le jeu a dépassé le cadre régional pour entrer dans une confrontation aux dimensions internationales.

La conclusion de ce premier épisode est sans équivoque : ce qui se joue aujourd’hui n’est pas une simple confrontation militaire, mais un nouvel épisode d’une partie d’échecs mondiale, où chaque mouvement est calculé et chaque frappe porte plusieurs messages et objectifs. GeoChess promet de poursuivre le décryptage de cette partie complexe, pas à pas, sans slogans ni partis pris, avec une analyse froide d’un monde en ébullition sous la surface.

— In recent weeks, Iran had seen widespread demonstrations, with demands started with better living conditions and an end to clerical rule, the regime responded with severe crackdowns and it is reported that the deathtoll reached 200 and counting, amidst repeated US threats about a potential operation if the crackdown continues. US interest in the protests isn’t surprising, US interventionism at all time high, as the US had just abducted president Nicolas Maduro, a close ally of Tehran, as for Iran itself, the country saw it’s nuclear capacities weakened after a joined US/Israel aircampaign,  But why go after Iran again if the nuclear threat was neutralized according to US and Israeli narratives, we can’t answer these questions without going through what happened in the first confrontation.

— Now in modern warfare, whether we’re talking about power projection, or kinetic operations, air superiority is key. A comparative analysis between Israeli and Iranian airforces reveals a stark asymmetry, the IRIAF is by all means outclassed, it’s fleet, comprised of againg f14 tomcats platforms and Sukhoi variants, stands no chance, decades of sanctions, hampered Iran’s ability to acquire spare parts and conduct proper maintenance, thus a significant portion of its fleet is not operational. West of Iran, Israel enjoys a qualitative military edge, its airforce operates state of the art f-34 fighters and stealth capable 4.5 gen fighters like the F-15I Ra'am and F-16I Sufa. The technological gap between the two nations is hard to ignore, and will later on prove decisive in the eventual confrontation.

— Now the question we might ask ourselves, since Israel enjoys a clear technological advantage in terms of stealth, electronic warfare, range…. why did it wait for decades to strike, what was different on June 13th. Well 6 months prior to that date, Iran strongest defense line was compromised. You see what Israel lacked wasn’t striking ability, but range. Israeli jets simply lack the range to strike deeep inside iran, make the trip back to Israel without refueling, another obstacle, was Syrian, not only did it allow for greater Iranian presence in the region, but under Assad, though its air defenes was obsolete it used to be one of the highest concentration of SAM platforms. Following tAssad’s fall on December 8, Israel launched an air campaign targeting Syrian air defenses. Now with Syrian airspace open, an Air corridor through Syrian-Iraqui airspace was openend, and air refueling became a realistic option.

— The following step of our exercise is analyzing the Israeli strikes on Iran, Now what is obvious is that Israel’s boogyman ie, nuclear facilities were targeted, but the patterns suggest otherwise. repeated strikes against regions in western and southern Iran characterized by significant ethnic minority populations. Specifically, areas such as East and West Azerbaijan, Khuzestan, Bushehr, Hormozgan, Sistan and Baluchistan, Gilan, and Mazandaran were frequently hit. This may suggest a deliberate attempt to exploit existing ethnic grivences as diverse ethnic groups, Arabs, Kurds, Azeris, Lurs, Baluch, Gilaks, and Mazanderanis, many of whom have long-standing grievances against the central Persian government repression and marginalization. By targeting these groups Israel aims to push the state into the jaws of sectarianism by showing them that the sentral government is incapable of protecting them from a foreign enemy, sowing seeds for autonomy or secession plights. And knowng Israel we know that the settler state is no stranger to divide and conquer doctrine, if one wonders what Israel gets from sectarianism in Iran, the answer can be as simple as cutting Tehran from its oil rich regions like Khuzestan.

— Now that we’re getting done with geography, the next logical question is who did Israel strike, as we stated earlier, the attacks weren’t kust aiming at neutralizing Iranian nuclear capabilities but they also hoped to decapitate the IRGC, and that’s the next step of our analysis. Here’s a list of key IRGC  figures who were eliminated:
• Major General Mohammad Bagheri, Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, killed on June 13, 2025 16 17 18.
• Major General Hossein Salami, Commander-in-Chief of the IRGC, killed on June 13, 2025 16 17 18.
• Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizadeh, Commander of the IRGC Aerospace Force, killed on June 13, 2025 16 17 18.
• Major General Gholam Ali Rashid, Head of the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, eliminated on June 13, 2025 19 20 21
• His immediate successor, Major General Ali Shadmani, was also killed just days later on June 17, 2025, underscoring the relentless and precise nature of the decapitation campaign

— Based on this we can make the conclusion that Israel deliberately avoided ARTESH leadership. We can assume that Israel hoped to tip the toe in favor of ARTESH, avoid escalating the confrontation into a full-scale conventional war, and for PR purposes, as Israel would have preferd its aggression to be framed as containment of a revolutionary apparatus rather than attacking a sovereign state.

— All in all, Israel managed to successfully target the IRGC top echelon, but it couldn’t reach the nuclear facilities buried under the mountains in Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan, that’s where the US intervened with its B2 spirit bombers and GBU-57 bunker buster bombs. That’s when Iran found out why Americans don’t have free universal healthcare.

— These elements lead us to the conclusion or presumption that the settler state aimed for strategic paralysis of the IRGC. Seeing the current situation in Iran, between nationwide protests shy of a revolution, US and Israeli reports abt a potential Khamenei retreat into Russia and imminent threat of US military strikes, could one argue that operations Rising lion and midnight hammer were aimed to set the ground for a regime change or was this an inevitable situation seeing the economic struggles of Iran, and what about the future, will Israel manage yet again to drag the US into another campaign in the middle east and plunge the region in chaos or does the mullah regime have another card to play knowing that 400kg of 60% enriched uranium was relecoted by Iran in anticipation of the airstrikes, and only an extra 30% enriched is needed to produce 10 nuclear warheads.